(General Studies II – International relations section – India and its Neighborhood- Relations. Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.)
- Events in Myanmar, especially the unrest in the country, has led to concerns about disability in India’s neighbourhood.
- The events has again brought to light the civil war in Myanmar and its implications for the region, especially India.
| Spring Revolution – Spring Revolution is the local name for the 2021 Myanmar protests, which began on February 2, 2021 in opposition to the military coup d’état that took place on February 1, 2021. – The coup was staged by the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, the Tatmadaw, and overthrew the democratically elected government. – The Spring Revolution is a nationwide resistance movement against the military ruling class. |
Impact of the Civil war in Myanmar –
| Act East Policy – Initially launched as the Look East Policy in 1992, India rebranded and relaunched the policy as the Act East Policy in 2014. Objectives of the Policy – 1. To enhance trade, investment, and cultural relations between emerging India and Southeast Asia, particularly the ASEAN countries. 2. The Policy emphasised creating opportunities and stabilising India’s unstable and conflict-prone North-Eastern Region. 3. It endeavours to counter China’s growing economic and military power in neighbouring Myanmar, both bilaterally and in collaboration with like-minded ASEAN countries. |
- Since November 2023, the ceasefire initiated by the government of Aung San Suu Kyi has failed, resulting in increased violence and the creation of alternative governments by various ethnic insurgent groups.
- Myanmar now remains divided and isolated internationally, with its political environment marked by the military’s persistent dominance and the instability of its multi-ethnic composition.
- Myanmar’s civil war has impacted its neighbouring countries due to refugee influx. As of January 2024, almost 2.6 million people have fled their homes in Myanmar.
Impact on India –
- The ongoing violence in Myanmar has negatively impacted India’s Act East Policy (AEP), especially the India-Myanmar bilateral trade.
- The violence has discouraged investments in the Northeast Region of India due to Indo-Myanmar border violence and connectivity issues
- India has partnered with the Myanmar government in the past, to secure the NER against insurgent threats but present situation can flare up cross border insurgency in the North eastern region of India.
- Regional connectivity between India’s NER and south east Asia has been hamstringed due to delays in Myanmar stretch of the projects. E.g. – Delays in Kaladan Multi-Modal Project & India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Project.
- The heightened influx of refugees has posed significant security challenges in India’s NER.
- Mizoram hosts over 60000 refugees from Myanmar since 2021 coup while influx of Kuki refugees from Myanmar is seen as a contributing factor to the violence in Manipur.
- An unstable Myanmar also helps China in increasing its footprint in the region, through the supply of arms to the insurgent groups, which has spillover effect on the NER of India.
| The KMMP aims to improve connectivity to India’s NER via Bangladesh and Myanmar, linking India’s Kolkata port to Myanmar’s Sittwe port and extending to Mizoram through highways in Myanmar. The IMTTP, conversely, will connect India’s border town, Moreh, to Mae Sot in Thailand via Myanmar, establishing a land route for seamless trade, business, education, and tourism among all three countries. |
Steps taken by India –
- India has cancelled the Free Regime Movement (FMR) between India and Myanmar to ensure the country’s internal security and maintain the demographic structure of the Northeastern states.
- India had earlier decided to fence the 1,643 km-long Indo-Myanmar border, which was a porous border earlier, permitting free movement near the border.
Way forward –
- Proactive response to the changing situation in Myanmar, instead of a reactive approach, by spearheading a peace process in the country.
- India must take decisive action to engage constructively with all stakeholders in Myanmar and work towards a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
Pursuing a strategy of multi-alignment in Myanmar is not only essential for enhancing India’s strategic position but also for contributing to the broader goal of fostering peace and prosperity in the region.
