- The Myanmar military’s coup d’état in 2021 led to a seismic shift in the country’s politics. The military miscalculated the resistance to the coup, which resulted in sustained violent opposition and the rise of Armed Groups.
- The removal of Aung San Suu Kyi and other civilian leaders prompted ongoing resistance, leading the military to use indiscriminate force and damaging its legitimacy.
The Brotherhood Alliance
- The Brotherhood Alliance comprises the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.
- The Alliance captured strategically important towns, and the military risks losing control of its regional headquarters in Lashio, northern Shan State.
The Arakan Army
- The Arakan Army dominates large parts of Rakhine province.
- The armed group has seized territories on the Bangladesh border and is nearing key port towns on the Bay of Bengal coast, such as Kyauk Phyu, Sittwe, and Ngapali.
- Kyauk Phyu is a vital node in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and India’s Kaladan project, making peace and stability in Sittwe crucial.
| Organization | Control Areas |
| Kachin Independence Army (KIA) | Seized about 70 military posts. Controls key border trade routes with China. |
| People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) | Gaining ground in central Myanmar. Prompted the military to reinforce positions near Mandalay. |
| Karen National Union (KNU) | Established a presence around Dawei in the south. Nearing control of Myawaddy, a strategic town near Thailand. Losing these coastal and border towns would deprive the military of critical resources and revenues. |
Dig Deeper: Read about armed groups of Myanmar like NSCN-K and Kuki National Organisation-Burma which pose security implications for India.
