Extreme Weather, Forecasting and Project Mausam

(General Studies I – Geography Section – Important Geophysical Phenomena such as earthquakes, Tsunami, Volcanic activity, cyclone etc. General Studies III – Science & Technology Section – Science and Technology- Developments and their Applications and Effects in Everyday Life. Achievements of Indians in Science & Technology; Indigenization of Technology and Developing New Technology.)

• India is facing an increasing frequency of extreme weather events, with both flooding and droughts becoming more common across regions. With over 40% of districts experiencing alternating climatic hazards, the need for better weather forecasting and improved early warning systems is urgent.
• The Union government’s Mission Mausam, launched in 2024, aims to address these growing challenges by enhancing India’s weather observation and forecasting capabilities.

Challenges in Weather Forecasting in India –

• Gaps in Radar Coverage: India’s Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) are limited, with only 39 operational radars. Of these, only five radars cover the west coast, which faces growing threats from cyclones in the Arabian Sea, particularly with a 52% increase in cyclone activity over the past decade.
  • Cities like Ahmedabad and Bengaluru, which have recently experienced severe flooding, also lack adequate radar systems, exposing them to heightened risk during extreme weather events.
• Limited Data Accessibility: India’s weather data is not as freely accessible as it is in countries like the United States or France, where open data systems have led to significant advancements in weather tools and disaster preparedness.
  • In India, restrictions on data sharing by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) limit innovation, and developers are unable to create localized solutions for early warnings.
• Lack of Precision in Short-term Forecasting: India’s current forecasting models struggle with predicting short-term extreme weather events, such as sudden heavy rainfall and flooding.
  • Outdated models and the limited use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) lead to less accurate short-term predictions, affecting the ability of communities to prepare for immediate weather risks.
• Communication Barriers: While the IMD provides weather alerts through websites and mobile applications, there is a communication gap. Many users find the warnings difficult to interpret, reducing the effectiveness of the early warning systems.
  • For instance, during the 2019 Mumbai floods, the lack of clarity in warnings contributed to 32 fatalities, as many individuals failed to act on time.

How Mission Mausam Addresses These Challenges –

Mission Mausam launched by Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoEShas the goal of making Bharat a “Weather-ready and Climate-smart” nation, so as to mitigate the impact of climate change and extreme weather events and strengthen the resilience of the communities. Currently the Mission Mausam will be implemented during 2024-26

• Expanding Radar Coverage Mission Mausam, launched in 2024, aims to close the radar coverage gaps by installing additional Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs), particularly along the west coast and in flood-prone cities like Ahmedabad and Bengaluru.
  • This expansion will improve the accuracy and reach of short-term weather predictions, particularly for cyclones and intense rainfall.
• Improving Data Accessibility: The mission promotes open access to weather data. Data from weather radars, wind profilers, and forecasting models will be made publicly available to researchers and entrepreneurs, similar to the system in the U.S. and France.
  • This will enable the development of localized weather prediction tools, enhancing early warnings and disaster preparedness.
• Technological Innovations in Forecasting: Mission Mausam will leverage artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to improve forecasting models, particularly for short-term extreme weather events.
  • Studies show that using ML could reduce errors in short-term forecasts by 20%, helping communities better prepare for immediate threats like flash floods.
• Enhanced Communication and User Tools: The mission will focus on improving the user interface of IMD’s weather warnings, providing tools like videos, guides, and simplified communication to ensure that users can easily understand and act on warnings.
  • By improving public awareness and preparedness, the initiative aims to reduce the impact of extreme weather events.

Mission Mausam is designed to address critical gaps in weather forecasting, data access, and communication. By investing in technology and infrastructure, the initiative will enhance India’s ability to predict and manage extreme weather events, ultimately helping to safeguard lives and livelihoods across the country.