(General Studies II – International Relations Section – India and its Neighbourhood- Relations. Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.)
• In August 2024, Bangladesh experienced a significant political upheaval that led to the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, one of the longest-serving political leaders in the country’s history.
• This movement, which began as a protest against a controversial quota system in government jobs, quickly escalated into a nationwide uprising that ultimately toppled the government.
• The events in Bangladesh have far-reaching implications for the region, particularly for India, which shares a complex and often delicate relationship with its neighbor.
Reasons for the Political Crisis in Bangladesh –
- High court decision: The crisis in Bangladesh was triggered by a decision from the High Court to re-establish a job quota reserving 30% of civil service posts for the descendants of freedom fighters from the country’s liberation war.
• This decision reignited a long-standing debate about the fairness of the quota system.
• Initially, both the government and the protesting students were aligned in their desire for quota reform, with the government even preparing to appeal against the court order. - Government’s Missteps: Prime Minister Hasina’s derogatory comments towards the protesters, referring to them as “children of Razakars,” inflamed tensions. The aggressive response, including shutting down the internet and deploying the Bangladesh Chhatra League against protesters, further escalated the situation.
- Violent Crackdown: The government’s decision to use force against the students, leading to the deaths of around 20 students on July 18, shifted public sentiment against the administration, turning a reform protest into a broader anti-government movement.
- Breakdown of Negotiations: The failure of negotiations between the government and protest leaders, along with the arrest and disappearance of key coordinators, contributed to the collapse of any potential resolution.
India’s Fragile Neighborhood – The political turmoil in Bangladesh presents a significant challenge for India, which shares deep ties with its neighbor.
- Diplomatic Strain: India’s perceived support for Sheikh Hasina’s government, despite the authoritarian measures she employed, has created resentment among many Bangladeshis. This has strained India’s relationship with Bangladesh’s broader population, who see India as aligned with a specific political faction rather than with the people.
- Regional Instability: The unrest in Bangladesh adds to the instability in South Asia, where India is already navigating complex relationships with other neighbors like Pakistan, Nepal, and Myanmar. The potential for spillover effects, such as increased migration or radicalization, presents security concerns for India.
- Impact on Bilateral Relations: The events in Bangladesh have highlighted the limitations of India’s policy of relying on relationships with individual leaders. As the situation in Bangladesh evolves, India risks being seen as disconnected from the democratic aspirations of its neighbor.
Steps India Needs to Take – In light of the recent developments, India needs to recalibrate its approach to ensure long-term stability and goodwill in its neighborhood:
- Engage with a Broader Spectrum: India must expand its engagement beyond individual leaders and parties, building relationships with a wider array of stakeholders, including civil society, opposition parties, and the general population.
- Promote Democratic Values: By advocating for democracy, rule of law, and human rights, India can align itself with the broader aspirations of the Bangladeshi people. Supporting free and fair elections in Bangladesh is crucial to maintaining stability in the region.
- Strengthen Diplomatic Channels: India should use its diplomatic channels to mediate and provide support during Bangladesh’s transition to a new government. Ensuring that Bangladesh remains a stable and friendly neighbor is in India’s best interest.
- Address Misinformation: India must counter the negative perceptions and misinformation about its role in Bangladesh. Transparent communication and cultural diplomacy can help rebuild trust.
The political crisis in Bangladesh in 2024 serves as a reminder of the volatile nature of South Asian politics and the challenges India faces in its neighborhood. The fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government underscores the need for India to adopt a more nuanced and people-centric approach in its foreign policy. By engaging with a broader spectrum of society in Bangladesh and promoting democratic values, India can help ensure a stable and prosperous neighborhood, benefiting the entire region
